(Information source: Guotai An Market Global Financial Information Analysis System)
Zhanhao: How much room can fall if you open low and go low (Zhanhao: a famous financial commentator, as of 2009-10-30, Sina blog visits 68,212,887 points)
US stocks fell sharply yesterday, and the GEM listing and trading were on the line. It is not surprising that two bearish losses were thrown in an A-share market that coincided with the adjustment. For GEM listed transactions, it was basically confirmed half a month ago, and for US stocks that were already on the verge of adjustment, it should have been adjusted long ago, but this expectation adjustment was delayed by nearly one due to a rumor that the trade abandoned the US dollar. month. However, from the perspective of expectations, the current US stock market has overdrawn the expectations of the US economy to recover within half a year.
From a technical point of view, there is still a lot of room for US stocks to adjust, and many investors worry that A-shares will continue to decline. It is necessary for the author to declare here that A-shares and US stocks are not in the same rhythm. The reason why the recent connection is relatively close is because A-shares are in a weak state recently and are easily affected by the outside world. The adjustment of A shares began three months ago, and the adjustment of US stocks is a matter of recent days, which means that the release of adjustment pressure on A shares is more than two months earlier than that of US stocks. Therefore, technically, A-shares and US stocks are not in the same rhythm, and the market outlook is completely impossible to be in a rhythm. This is determined by the economic expectations of both China and the United States. Therefore, I personally believe that A shares will be adjusted by the adjustment of US stocks, but A shares will not fall with US stocks. The most likely trend is that A shares gradually explore the bottom in the shock, and then get rid of the control of US stocks and walk out of the independent market.
In the short-term, A-shares are undoubtedly still under adjustment, and the short-term adjustment distance will take time; the mid-line, A-shares are also under adjustment, but the trend of the mid-line is still under normal technical repair so far. In my opinion, as long as the midline does not close and close the large gap after the festival, it is normal technical adjustment. If the gap is really closed to close the gap, then investors must really rethink the issue of the midline trend. Therefore, the limit position for the normal adjustment of the center line is at 2803 points (closed, the intraday may be broken). In this way, investors have a basis for operation, as long as the market does not close the large gap after the festival, as long as it stands above this position, then you can rest assured to buy, and once the gap is closed, the midline should be sold . With such a trading principle, investors only have two questions to consider: 1. See if the market trend survey will intervene around 2800 points or around 2900 points. 2. If there is an unexpected market closing the large gap after the festival, then the medium and long-term stop loss is waiting for the end of the complete adjustment.
Shuipi: Sell half of the items above 3000 points (Shuipi: famous financial commentator, current special commentator of CCTV and Beijing TV station, as of October 30, 2009, Sina blog visits 12,110,392 points)
Last year, Mr. Shuipi, a well-known financial commentator who pointed out that this year's stock index will run between 2400-3500 points, said in an interview, "3500 points are the value center of the Chinese stock market." This is the view Shuipi has always insisted on. He said that from 2000 points to 3500 points, this is a process of oversold rebound and return to the valuation space. "I have never defined it as a bull market this year. The corresponding valuation space of 25 times corresponds to 3500 points, and the second wave of market is definitely going to follow the economic background. From experience, for example, if the household savings deposits move more than 500 billion At the same time, we need to be vigilant about the direction of the market. "Therefore, he believes that the 3500 point should go up and open up the imagination of many stocks, especially those whose performance has greatly improved. The ideal state of A-shares is the volatility in the range of 3000-3500 points. This adjustment is based on space for time. He believes that one way of the trend since the second half of the year is to use a wide range of shocks for time for space, and one way is to plunge sharply for space for time.
"Next, the strength of the stock market is only waiting for the next bubble to emerge. Only after the new bubble is created will everyone have the spirit of the" death squad ", and the index may continue to rise." Shuipi suggested that it was above 3000 points. , Sell half, 3000 points down, and then buy it. "The short-term plunge has dropped the space of many index stocks, and investors with short positions are a good time to buy."
Hou Ning: Even the speculative value of more than 3,000 points is very small (Hou Ning: financial observer, independent financial commentator, in 2007, just when people looked at 8000 points or even 10,000 points, Hou Ning's "broad" bearishness became famous from then on. .As of 2009-10-30, Sina blog visits 47,505,752 points)
I do n’t agree with those that have investment value of more than 3000 points. On the contrary, I think that even speculative value is very small. More importantly, I think that after more than two years of stock market disasters, the Chinese stock market and Chinese investors can no longer withstand such speculation. Otherwise, the consequences will be very serious. Of course, this is for the broader market and has nothing to do with a specific stock.
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