Where are you in the future furniture industry?

In recent years, the furniture dealers I've come into contact with have hailed from various regions, each operating in different furniture categories and with varying financial strengths. Despite these differences, they all share a common sentiment: "Running a business is tough," and beneath that statement lies an unspoken truth — "Every dealer takes risks." Furniture manufacturers, on the other hand, are also struggling. They complain about rising production costs, uncertain shipment volumes, and the possibility that their final profits might not even match those of the dealers. Meanwhile, retailers often find themselves caught in the middle, and when they get excited, they frequently blame the dealers for being short-sighted. It seems that the surface of the furniture industry is full of contradictions, giving people the feeling of "laughing on stage, crying behind the scenes." Beyond mutual accusations, the reality is that the entire industry is facing significant challenges, and adjustments are happening amidst these conflicts. Whether we like it or not, major transformations are inevitable. As someone who has been closely following the furniture industry for many years, today I’d like to explore what the future of this industry might look like, as well as the roles current players may play in shaping it. **Furniture Manufacturers: Becoming Brand Suppliers** It’s unlikely that manufacturers will completely abandon their manufacturing operations in the future. However, the industry will definitely see a reduction in the number of companies. The law of survival of the fittest applies here too. After several rounds of mergers and acquisitions, only a few furniture companies will remain, and their business models will become more defined. Manufacturers can be broadly categorized into two groups: 1. **Branded Companies**: These companies have their own brands and sell products under their name in the market. While there are many such companies today, the ones that will survive in the future will be different from most of the current “unknown” brands. These future brands will have built real reputation and influence through market consolidation. Their channel models will be more diversified, including direct stores, franchises, or retail wholesale. In terms of production, they may operate their own factories or use foundry models, focusing solely on brand and channel management. These brands will have clear positioning — some high-end, others design-driven, or focused on popular trends. 2. **Unbranded Companies**: These are essentially the current foundries. Though they lack brand value and added profit, they still have a place in the global economy. As material and labor costs rise, many domestic foundries may move to Southeast Asia or even Africa, while a few will stay in remote areas of China — but the latter group will shrink significantly. **Furniture Retailers: Building Their Own Brands** For years, many furniture dealers have admired foreign retailers, believing that they are the true channel masters. Some may even think that Chinese furniture dealers should follow this path. I believe the future of the furniture industry in China will move toward a more advanced model. Some dealers will indeed evolve into strong retailers, achieving a successful transformation. However, only a few will manage to stick with it. These include: 1. **Self-Sufficient Retailers**: Even in the future, furniture retailers will still play a crucial role. Their business model will be similar to today’s, but the number will decrease significantly. These retailers may become exclusive partners of certain brands, open franchise stores, or sell authorized products in their own shops. 2. **Private Label Retailers**: Owning a brand is the dream of many dealers. After accumulating capital, some may choose to create their own brand, produce products through foundries, and sell them through their own channels — a model already seen in Europe and the U.S. **Furniture Distributors: Transforming into Brand Retailers** As a key part of the current furniture distribution chain, furniture distributors will need to undergo deep transformation in the future. With fewer brands, their traditional store model will no longer be sustainable. While some may argue that even with fewer brands, a store can still be filled, the reality is that once a brand has established its identity, it will choose the most suitable channel model — independent stores, department stores, etc. This reduces their reliance on traditional furniture stores. Most of these stores will either disappear or transform into brand retailers. Chain furniture stores, in particular, have the advantage of accumulated brand recognition. By purchasing products and rebranding them, they can smoothly transition into brand retailers. **Future Furniture Retailers: The Winners of the Industry** In the future, furniture manufacturers will either own consumer brands or focus on brand and channel operations, outsourcing production to foundries. Retailers will evolve into multi-dimensional players, and some will even take on brand sales roles. It turns out that furniture retailers could be the big winners in the future. Of course, predicting the future is always risky. I’m just sharing my thoughts to spark discussion among industry leaders. For more insights into China's furniture industry, visit the official website of Xianghe Furniture City.

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