Business people talk about "waste paper"

● China is a country with a shortage of wood resources. The use of imported waste paper can not only replace wood pulp, save resources, but also protect the environment. Therefore, China's paper industry imports waste paper has developed rapidly. In papermaking raw material structure, the proportion of waste paper has been Accounted for 44%, higher than the world average (34%), do you think that 44% of China's waste paper raw material proportion is reasonable?

Lin Yiting (Advisor of Fujian Nan Paper Co., Ltd.): Under normal circumstances, 44% of waste paper ratio is not too high, Western Europe's papermaking major countries use more waste paper, such as France, 57.5%, Germany, 64.4%, while the United Kingdom is much higher. 74.3%, the United States is also about 41%. However, Western Europe and other countries use wood pulp instead of waste paper. Therefore, the use of some waste paper has little impact on the production of the entire paper industry, especially the quality of products, and it is mostly based on the use of waste paper in the region. The recycling cycle is short. Due to the short transportation distance and the low factory price, there is a greater advantage. However, the proportion of wood pulp in the papermaking industry in China is too low. The self-produced wood pulp and imported wood pulp account for only 23% of the papermaking fiber raw materials, and 33% are non-wood fiber. The quality of the original paper is poor, and the quality of recycled waste paper is even higher. Worse, about half of the waste paper used in China is imported, and most of it is imported from the United States. Only ocean shipping is required—about a month or so. In order not to interrupt the supply of waste paper, the paper mills must have a certain inventory. Therefore, the waste paper that is put into the production line sometimes has a turnaround time of four or five months or even longer, and the quality is hard to compare with fresh waste paper. So I think that in China, where the proportion of non-wood fiber is so high and the dependence on foreign waste paper is so great, the proportion of waste paper is 44%.

Guo Xingfu (Vice President of Huatai Group): I think this proportion is still relatively reasonable. The increase in the proportion of paper waste reflects the progress of our company's development.

First of all, China’s forest resources are fewer than those in Canada, the United States, Finland, Russia, and other countries. By importing low-cost waste paper, we can increase the wood fiber content of our country’s paper products and achieve the goal of improving product quality. This is the most convenient and effective way. The most affordable way. Moreover, from the perspective of resource conservation, we should also increase the proportion of waste paper. Second, the national policy has restricted the increase of new papermaking projects. However, after the original paper-making enterprises reformed their equipment, they grew from small to strong, the paper machine from the rotary screen to the long wire, the equipment from domestic to imported, and the raw materials from grass. Pulp to wood pulp, waste paper pulp, technical strength has also been continuously enhanced, can make full use of secondary fibers or even tertiary fibers, to improve product quality and competitiveness, reduce waste and pollution purposes. Huatai is a good example of the development of China's paper industry. In addition, compared with the developed countries in the world, the proportion of 44% is not too much. I have read reports that for future development, the United States proposes that the utilization rate of waste paper should reach half of the paper production, among which, newsprint reaches 70%-80%, printing paper reaches 40%-50%, and toilet paper must be fully used as raw material. . Since the beginning of the 1990s, the United States has not only used large amounts of waste paper in its own country, but also exported surplus paper to other parts of the world. Japan is also an underprivileged country, but Japan’s paper production is now second only to the United States and China, and waste paper utilization has reached more than 58% of paper production. Germany, the Netherlands, and South Korea also attach great importance to the use of waste paper. The annual utilization rate is about 50% of paper production.

With the economic growth and improvement of people's living standards, it will stimulate the rapid development of the paper industry, so I think that the proportion of waste paper raw materials in China will increase in recent years, and it is expected to reach 46% to 50% by 2010.

Xue Wenming (Director, International Trade Division, Sun Paper): At present, many domestic paper companies are using imported waste paper as the main raw material. This is like everyone is crammed into a fast “highway” and everyone takes the “highway. The purpose of the project is to save time, accelerate the development of the enterprise, and see the benefits as soon as possible (using imported waste paper can save investment more than imported wood pulp, and relatively speaking, the project investment return period is short), on the other hand, "highway" Although it is fast, it is not easy to turn around, problems are difficult to adjust, and, in addition, its carrying capacity is also limited. In other words, the domestic papermaking industry is very passive on the issue of imported waste paper supply. If there is any change in the international waste paper supply, it will directly affect the production of domestic enterprises using waste paper as the main raw material. It is very difficult to replace raw materials in time. So these companies have no complete initiative in terms of production operations and cost control.
If you do not change this situation as soon as possible, it will most likely lead to the abnormal development of China's paper industry.

Sun Yuming (Assistant Manager of Shouguang Chenming Paper Co., Ltd. and Supply Company Manager): From the perspective of environmental protection and energy conservation, imported waste paper is beneficial to the development of the paper industry. However, from the point of view of procurement safety, the proportion of 44% is high, and it will be restricted by the international market in the future. If a large amount of waste paper processing equipment is launched, once the international market changes, companies will be in a passive state.

● China's imported waste paper is concentrated in a few countries and regions such as the United States, Hong Kong, Japan, and the United States, and from the global waste paper recovery rate has reached 46%, how do you estimate the capacity of imported waste paper, Chinese companies rely too much on imported waste paper, Will it cause a crisis?

Guo Xinghao: I think the imported waste paper capacity will continue to expand in the next few years. At present, the waste paper recovery rate in the United States is more than 50%, Europe is more than 55%, Japan is more than 56%, and Finland has the highest recycling rate, which currently reaches 74%. In some countries, although there is a lack of fiber resources, large quantities of commercial pulp and paper are imported each year. However, due to large consumption and high waste paper recycling rate, there are a large number of waste paper exports each year. The most typical is Germany. In 2000, the net import commodity pulp was 3.873 million. Tons, net imports of paper and paperboard were 930 thousand tons, but net exports of waste paper reached 2.578 million tons. Britain's net exports of waste paper in 2000 were also 427YW. With the attention and standardization of waste paper recycling in various countries, the amount of waste paper recovered will also increase. In addition, the path of imported waste paper will become wider and wider. Now it is mainly imported from the United States, Japan, and Hong Kong. It can also be imported from the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Finland, Austria, etc. In a word, waste paper will not disappear. The problem of high and low prices, but the price is still high but a "waste", isn't it?

Sun Yuming: Waste paper recycling depends on the growth of the global economy, especially the United States and other developed countries. In recent years, the growth rate of these countries will not be too high, about 3%, so that the increase in paper consumption will not be higher than 3%, while the economic growth rate in China is about 8%, so the growth rate of paper consumption is generally If it is higher than 8%, the growth rate of Chinese industry will be about 13%, and the corresponding industrial product packaging will also increase. The output of packaging paper using waste paper as raw material will increase significantly. Due to the poor quality of domestic waste paper and the low recovery rate, a large amount of waste paper still needs to rely on imports, further leading to tight supply and demand, and the possibility of triggering a crisis.

Lin Yiting: At present, the global recycling rate of waste paper is 46%, which is close to its limit and the remaining space is small. According to data, paper and paperboard, which are not recyclable, such as household paper, long-reserved books and other printed matter, and building paperboard, are more realistic. However, Mr. Guo Yongxin stated in his article “Viewing Waste Paper Resources - Problems and Countermeasures” that “at present, nearly 46% of the world's waste paper recycling rate is close to the limit that may be reached.” According to Mr. Guo Yongxin's statistical data, China's waste paper is mainly imported from the United States, Hong Kong, Japan, the Netherlands, France, and Belgium and other countries (regions), and some of these countries (regions) waste paper recovery rate is almost 60%. In 2001, the waste paper recycling rate in the United States was 48.7%, which was reduced by the volume of imports of paperboard and paperboard, and was 57.5% in Japan, 72.4% in the Netherlands, and Germany 74. .4%, China's Hong Kong is almost 100% recycled. To further increase the recovery rate, the difficulty will increase, not only will increase the recovery costs, but also relax the recovery standards, is bound to reduce the quality of waste paper. The research results also show that every time waste paper is recycled, once it is recycled and used, it will be damaged to varying degrees, such as fiber breakage, crushing, etc. Therefore, there is no much use value after recycling 4-5 times, so you should be careful when considering waste paper projects. attitude. At present, many paper mills in China mainly use waste paper to produce mid-to-low grade paper and paperboard, which has certain benefits. However, relying too much on waste paper will inevitably push up the price of waste paper. Moreover, the quality requirements for paper and paperboard in the Chinese market are continuously increasing, resulting in high-end paper supply exceeding demand, and a large number of imports. The oversupply of middle- and low-grade paper is difficult. The further development will lead to the survival crisis of a large number of paper mills that use waste paper as their main raw material to produce middle and low grade papers.

Xue Wenming: For the economic development of a few countries, such as the United States and Japan, where waste paper is mainly supplied, its overall economic development level and comprehensive national strength have reached a very high level. In recent years, the development has been slow, and even a negative growth has occurred. This determines its The total amount of waste paper recycling cannot also have much room for growth. The contradiction between the supply and demand of imported waste paper will become more and more prominent. If this contradiction is not solved, it will bring certain crisis to the papermaking industry in China.

● Supply and demand determine the value, and the increasing demand leads to an increase in waste paper prices. The annual increase will reach 8%, making the prices of waste paper-based products relatively higher, which not only affects the competitiveness of enterprises, but also makes waste paper as raw material. Expected returns on projects under construction and proposed projects will be affected. How do you look at the prospects of this issue? How should you choose to use imported waste paper and imported wood pulp?

Lin Yiting: In 2001, the output and consumption of paper and board in China exceeded the number two in Japan, but the per capita annual consumption of paper and board is only 30kg, which is lower than the world average. There is a certain difficulty in large-scale recycling. The use of many kinds of grass fiber (33%) in the paperboard also affects its recycling and utilization, and it is a shortage of forest resources in China. The national forest coverage rate is only about 12%. It is difficult to increase the proportion of pulp and paper, so some paper is imported. Pulp is necessary, but new papermaking projects with imported waste paper and wood pulp as raw materials are too risky and must be treated with caution.

However, for the production of big news products such as newsprint and ordinary wrapping paper and cardboard, it is to choose whether to import waste paper or import wood pulp (referring to TMP or CTMP), depending on raw material prices and production costs. Paper mills near the port have some advantages in using waste paper. However, whether it is imported waste paper or imported wood pulp, the production of major road products can only be used as a supplementary raw material, because the price of the rough goods is low and itself depends on puerile. There are certain benefits, so in my opinion, the major use of imported waste paper or TMP (BTMP) to produce large road goods is risky.

China's forest resources are in short supply. The state supports conditional factories to run forest farms themselves and take forestry-paper integration roads. This is an important policy measure for the development of China's paper industry. However, over a decade, some paper mills have run forest farms themselves. Thirty years have produced little results, mainly because only the slogan has no concrete measures to follow up. For example, in the forest farms owned by the paper mills, the paper mills do not have the right to cut, and since the felling and transportation to the paper mills from the mountains are subject to various taxes and fees, the cost will not fall. How will the enthusiasm for afforestation move? The department, like the central government to reduce the burden on peasants, should earnestly and practically reduce taxes and fees for the entire process of forestry production and support the development of forestry bases run by paper mills themselves.

Sun Yuming: In the future investment plan, it is necessary to fully investigate and demonstrate the international waste paper supply situation, and make careful selection in light of domestic actual conditions. The price of waste paper is determined by the market, but after the price rises to a certain extent, it will be constrained by the price of wood pulp and reach a new balance. In the case of imported wood pulp and waste paper, imported waste paper is mainly used, but when there is an advantage in wood pulp, wood pulp is imported to avoid the competitive disadvantage of rising waste paper prices.

Guo Xinghao: As long as there is supply and demand, there will inevitably be price changes, and we will never be on a starting line. Market competition means that you will die or lose one's life. Stronger competitiveness will lead to stronger and stronger development. Poor competitiveness may not survive. Ultimately, there will only be one dead end.